(Updates with U.S. refining capacity, additional comment)
NEW YORK/LONDON/MELBOURNE, Sept 21 (Reuters) - Global oil
refiners reeling from months of lackluster demand and an
abundance of inventories are cutting fuel production into the
autumn because the recovery in demand from the impact of
coronavirus has stalled, according to executives, refinery
workers and industry analysts.
Refiners cut output by as much as 35% in spring as
coronavirus lockdowns destroyed the need for travel. As
lockdowns eased, refiners increased output slowly through late
August. But in top fuel consumer the United States and
elsewhere, refiners have been decreasing rates for the last
several weeks in response to increased inventories, a sustained
lack of demand and in response to natural disasters.
The hit to capacity has been most notable in China. The
second largest fuel consumer led the world in oil demand
recovery after taming its outbreak of coronavirus. But its
refiners also export fuel, and those shipments have been weak
due to the virus's effect on fuel demand in other Asian nations.
Chinese refineries are expected to cut runs in September,
led by PetroChina with a 5-10% reduction versus
August, as Chinese refiners grapple with high fuel inventories
and poor export margins, analysts said.
The impacts of COVID-19...are putting extreme pressures on
the refining business that we have not experienced before and
are not sustainable over the longer term, Scott Wyatt, chief
executive at Australian fuel supplier Viva Energy Group Ltd
, said earlier this month.
Inventories of distillates, which include diesel, jet fuel
and heating oil, which usually start building ahead of winter,
are brimming this year, leading to a poor outlook for refinery
margins for the coming months.
U.S. fuel demand has fallen 13% year-on-year, according to
the U.S. Energy Information Administration. Autumn is typically
when use of heating oil and diesel rises, but with more than 179
million barrels in storage, nearly a record, refiners have no
incentive to keep units running.
The Paris-based International Energy Agency cut its forecast
for global oil demand for 2020 for the second time in two months
last week due to the faltering recovery. The energy watchdog
forecast global consumption of petroleum and liquid fuels will
average 91.7 million barrels per day for all of 2020, a
reduction in its previous forecast of 200,000 bpd and down 8.4
million bpd from 2019's 100.1 million bpd level.
"From our perspective, we see that pre-COVID demand will
probably not be back until 2023," said Molly Morris, senior vice
president in crude, products and liquids at Equinor.
U.S. refiners are still producing 20% less fuel than before
the pandemic, operating at 76% of overall capacity, lowest for
this time of year since 2008. Chinese, Indian, Japanese and
South Korean refineries cut their utilization rates from July
and August.
"Even with a U-shape economic recovery, demand potentially
is going to be around 2 million bpd below where it was in the
fourth quarter of 2019," David Fyfe, chief economist at Argus,
said on a webinar earlier this month.
Asias fuel output could fall further during seasonal
maintenance between September and November, and several
facilities worldwide are expected to close.
Average utilization rates at Chinese state-owned refineries
were at around 78.6% by end-August, down around 3.6 percentage
points from July, data compiled by China-based Longzhong
consultancy showed.
Australia's Viva said it may be forced to permanently shut
its Geelong Refinery in Victoria to curtail losses unless
coronavirus-led restrictions are eased and demand picks up. The
Australian government has proposed spending billions of dollars
to keep the countrys four remaining refineries open.
Singapores complex refining margins, a bellwether for Asia,
were negative in the first half of September, after turning
slightly positive in August following four straight months of
losses.
In the United States, the refining margin is hovering around
$9 a barrel, near its lowest levels in April. Refiners typically
do not turn a profit on products unless the crack spread - the
difference between crude and fuel - is higher than $10.
Several refiners in the Philadelphia and Chicago area have
put off planned work this autumn to save cash, according to
sources familiar with those plants. In total, fewer refineries
than usual will shut for seasonal maintenance.
Some refiners are in a difficult position because some
dont have the cash to do maintenance now, but theyre not
benefiting from continuing to run, said John Auers, refining
analyst at Turner Mason and Company.
Asian refiners have had to deal with higher official selling
prices from Saudi Arabia and other Middle Eastern producers than
in the late spring, said KY Lin, spokesperson for Taiwanese
refiner Formosa Petrochemical, causing major refining centers to
cut processing.
Japan, the worlds third-largest crude importer, cut its
refinery utilization rate to 65.9% in the week through Sept. 12,
down from nearly 72% in mid-August.
South Korea's largest refiner SK Innovation Co Ltd
is considering further lowering crude processing at
its two refineries after reducing average utilization rates to
80% in September-October from 85% in July-August, according to a
company spokeswoman.
"We're back to the times when margins are poor," Lin said,
adding that economics have actually deteriorated from the second
quarter. "Even though margins were poor back then, crude
feedstock costs were very low...now there's really no margin."
(Reporting by Laura Sanicola in New York, Sonali Paul in
Melbourne, and Ahmad Ghaddar in London; Additional reporting
from Shu Zhang, Chen Aizhu, Koustav Samanta and Florence Tan in
Singapore, Muyu Xu in Beijing, Heekyong Yang in Seoul, and Aaron
Sheldrick in Tokyo; Editing by David Gaffen, Simon Webb and
Marguerita Choy)