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THE PROGRESSIVE CORPORATION

(PGR)
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Progressive : News release dated May 19, 2021, containing financial results of The Progressive Corporation and its consolidated subsidiaries for the month of, and year-to-date period ended, April 2021 (Form 8-K)

05/19/2021 | 09:34am EDT

NEWS RELEASE
The Progressive Corporation Company Contact:
6300 Wilson Mills Road Douglas S. Constantine
Mayfield Village, Ohio 44143 (440) 910-3563
investor_relations@progressive.com

PROGRESSIVE REPORTS APRIL RESULTS

MAYFIELD VILLAGE, OHIO -- May 19, 2021 -- The Progressive Corporation (NYSE:PGR) today reported the following results for April 2021:
April
(millions, except per share amounts and ratios; unaudited) 2021 2020 Change
Net premiums written $ 4,450.6 $ 3,764.2 18 %
Net premiums earned $ 4,133.6 $ 3,634.3 14 %
Net income $ 316.2 $ 952.6 (67) %
Per share available to common shareholders $ 0.54 $ 1.62 (67) %
Total pretax net realized gains (losses) on securities $ 191.3 $ 537.3 (64) %
Combined ratio 96.0 83.4 12.6 pts.
Average diluted equivalent common shares 586.8 587.2 0 %

April
(thousands; unaudited) 2021 2020 Change
Policies in Force
Personal Lines
Agency - auto 7,951.8 7,237.1 10 %
Direct - auto 9,478.6 8,269.2 15 %
Total personal auto 17,430.4 15,506.3 12 %
Total special lines 5,106.7 4,618.1 11 %
Total Personal Lines 22,537.1 20,124.4 12 %
Total Commercial Lines 881.2 764.6 15 %
Property business 2,601.2 2,282.7 14 %
Companywide Total 26,019.5 23,171.7 12 %
Progressive offers personal and commercial insurance throughout the United States. Our Personal Lines business writes insurance for personal autos and special lines products. Our Commercial Lines business writes auto-related primary liability and physical damage insurance, and business-related general liability and property insurance, predominantly for small businesses. Our Property business writes residential property insurance for homeowners, other property owners, and renters.

- 1 -

THE PROGRESSIVE CORPORATION AND SUBSIDIARIES
COMPREHENSIVE INCOME STATEMENT
April 2021
(millions)
(unaudited)
Current Month
Comments on Monthly Results1
Net premiums written
$ 4,450.6
Revenues:
Net premiums earned
$ 4,133.6
Investment income
64.8
Net realized gains (losses) on securities:
Net realized gains (losses) on security sales
20.2
Net holding period gains (losses) on securities
171.1
Total net realized gains (losses) on securities
191.3
Fees and other revenues
71.1
Service revenues
25.8
Total revenues
4,486.6
Expenses:
Losses and loss adjustment expenses
3,148.4
Policy acquisition costs
350.4
Other underwriting expenses
539.2
Investment expenses
2.1
Service expenses
24.1
Interest expense
18.8
Total expenses
4,083.0
Income before income taxes
403.6
Provision for income taxes
87.4
Net income
316.2
Other comprehensive income (loss)
Changes in:
Total net unrealized gains (losses) on fixed-maturity securities
85.0
Net unrealized losses on forecasted transactions
0.1
Other comprehensive income (loss)
85.1
Total comprehensive income
$ 401.3
1For a description of our financial reporting and accounting policies, see Note 1 to our 2020 audited consolidated financial statements included in our 2020 Shareholders' Report, which can be found at www.progressive.com/annualreport.
- 2 -

THE PROGRESSIVE CORPORATION AND SUBSIDIARIES
COMPREHENSIVE INCOME STATEMENTS
April 2021
(millions)
(unaudited)

Year-to-Date
2021 2020 % Change
Net premiums written $ 16,179.7 $ 13,635.5 19
Revenues:
Net premiums earned $ 14,553.8 $ 13,065.0 11
Investment income 285.0 323.9 (12)
Net realized gains (losses) on securities:
Net realized gains (losses) on security sales 164.0 450.6 (64)
Net holding period gains (losses) on securities 612.6 (466.9) (231)
Total net realized gains (losses) on securities 776.6 (16.3) NM
Fees and other revenues 236.8 197.8 20
Service revenues 79.6 72.3 10
Total revenues 15,931.8 13,642.7 17
Expenses:
Losses and loss adjustment expenses 10,258.9 7,899.0 30
Policy acquisition costs 1,224.8 1,081.3 13
Other underwriting expenses 2,020.3 1,935.3 4
Policyholder credit expense 0 506.5 (100)
Investment expenses 7.7 6.9 12
Service expenses 73.4 65.0 13
Interest expense 75.2 66.8 13
Total expenses 13,660.3 11,560.8 18
Income before income taxes 2,271.5 2,081.9 9
Provision for income taxes 475.3 430.2 10
Net income 1,796.2 1,651.7 9
Other comprehensive income (loss)
Changes in:
Total net unrealized gains (losses) on fixed-maturity securities (454.6) 311.5 (246)
Net unrealized losses on forecasted transactions 0.3 0.2 50
Other comprehensive income (loss) (454.3) 311.7 (246)
Total comprehensive income 1,341.9 1,963.4 (32)
NM = Not Meaningful

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THE PROGRESSIVE CORPORATION AND SUBSIDIARIES
COMPUTATION OF NET INCOME AND COMPREHENSIVE INCOME PER SHARE
&
INVESTMENT RESULTS
April 2021
(millions - except per share amounts)
(unaudited)

The following table sets forth the computation of per share results:
Current Year-to-Date
Month 2021 2020
Net income attributable to Progressive
$ 316.2 $ 1,796.2 $ 1,651.7
Less: Preferred share dividends
2.2 8.9 8.9
Net income available to common shareholders
$ 314.0 $ 1,787.3 $ 1,642.8
Per common share:
Basic
$ 0.54 $ 3.06 $ 2.81
Diluted
$ 0.54 $ 3.05 $ 2.80
Comprehensive income attributable to Progressive
$ 401.3 $ 1,341.9 $ 1,963.4
Less: Preferred share dividends
2.2 8.9 8.9
Comprehensive income attributable to common shareholders
$ 399.1 $ 1,333.0 $ 1,954.5
Per common share:
Diluted
$ 0.68 $ 2.27 $ 3.33
Average common shares outstanding - Basic
584.6 584.8 584.7
Net effect of dilutive stock-based compensation
2.2 2.0 2.3
Total average equivalent common shares - Diluted
586.8 586.8 587.0

The following table sets forth the investment results for the period:
Current
Year-to-Date
Month
2021 2020
Fully taxable equivalent (FTE) total return:
Fixed-income securities
0.5% (0.4)% 2.8%
Common stocks
3.4% 16.3% (10.2)%
Total portfolio
0.8% 1.0% 1.7%
Pretax annualized investment income book yield
1.8% 2.0% 2.6%

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THE PROGRESSIVE CORPORATION AND SUBSIDIARIES
SUPPLEMENTAL INFORMATION
April 2021
($ in millions)
(unaudited)

Current Month
Commercial
Personal Lines Business Lines Property Companywide
Agency Direct Total Business Business Total
Net Premiums Written $ 1,722.4 $ 1,814.2 $ 3,536.6 $ 731.6 $ 182.4 $ 4,450.6
% Growth in NPW 10% 11% 10% 79% 18% 18%
Net Premiums Earned $ 1,612.0 $ 1,769.7 $ 3,381.7 $ 591.0 $ 160.9 $ 4,133.6
% Growth in NPE 8% 13% 10% 38% 12% 14%
GAAP Ratios
Loss/LAE ratio 75.2 75.4 75.3 69.3 120.1 76.2
Expense ratio 18.5 20.0 19.3 19.7
29.81
19.8
Combined ratio 93.7 95.4 94.6 89.0
149.91
96.0
Net catastrophe loss ratio2
3.8 0.5 59.0 5.5
Actuarial Adjustments3
Reserve Decrease/(Increase)
Prior accident years $ 0.7
Current accident year 11.2
Calendar year actuarial adjustment $ 4.7 $ (5.2) $ (0.5) $ 0 $ 12.4 $ 11.9
Prior Accident Years Development
Favorable/(Unfavorable)
Actuarial adjustment $ 0.7
All other development (22.1)
Total development $ (21.4)
Calendar year loss/LAE ratio 76.2
Accident year loss/LAE ratio 75.7
1Included in both the expense ratio and combined ratio is 2.9 points of amortization expense predominately associated with the acquisition of a controlling interest in ARX. Excluding these additional expenses, the Property business would have reported an expense ratio of 26.9 and a combined ratio of 147.0.
2Represents catastrophe losses incurred during the period, including the impact of reinsurance, as a percent of net premiums earned. During the month, we incurred catastrophe losses primarily related to thunderstorms, hail, and tornadoes, in Texas, Oklahoma, and Alabama. In our Property business, we reduced the reinsurance recoverable $11.4 million, or 7.1 loss ratio points, due to favorable development on the February Texas winter storms.
3Represents adjustments solely based on our normally scheduled actuarial reviews. For our Property business, the actuarial reserving methodology includes changes to catastrophe losses, while the reviews in our vehicle businesses do not include catastrophes.
- 5 -

THE PROGRESSIVE CORPORATION AND SUBSIDIARIES
SUPPLEMENTAL INFORMATION
April 2021
($ in millions)
(unaudited)

Year-to-Date
Commercial
Personal Lines Business Lines Property Companywide
Agency Direct Total Business Business Total
Net Premiums Written $ 6,181.1 $ 6,816.9 $ 12,998.0 $ 2,525.7 $ 656.0 $ 16,179.7
% Growth in NPW 10% 15% 13% 63% 17% 19%
Net Premiums Earned $ 5,710.2 $ 6,201.4 $ 11,911.6 $ 2,008.8 $ 633.4 $ 14,553.8
% Growth in NPE 7% 11% 9% 24% 12% 11%
GAAP Ratios
Loss/LAE ratio 69.9 70.4 70.2 65.2
93.8.
70.5
Expense ratio 18.7 21.6 20.2 20.2
30.01
20.7
Combined ratio 88.6 92.0 90.4 85.4
123.81
91.2
Net catastrophe loss ratio2
1.6 0.2 37.8 3.0
Actuarial Adjustments3
Reserve Decrease/(Increase)
Prior accident years $ (21.4)
Current accident year 14.1
Calendar year actuarial adjustment $ 9.7 $ (5.3) $ 4.4 $ (11.1) $ (0.6) $ (7.3)
Prior Accident Years Development
Favorable/(Unfavorable)
Actuarial adjustment $ (21.4)
All other development (124.4)
Total development $ (145.8)
Calendar year loss/LAE ratio 70.5
Accident year loss/LAE ratio 69.5
1Included in both the expense ratio and combined ratio is 3.0 points of amortization expense predominately associated with the acquisition of a controlling interest in ARX. Excluding these additional expenses, the Property business would have reported an expense ratio of 27.0 and a combined ratio of 120.8.
2Represents catastrophe losses incurred during the period, including the impact of reinsurance, as a percent of net premiums earned.
3Represents adjustments solely based on our normally scheduled actuarial reviews. For our Property business, the actuarial reserving methodology includes changes to catastrophe losses, while the reviews in our vehicle businesses do not include catastrophes.

- 6 -

THE PROGRESSIVE CORPORATION AND SUBSIDIARIES
BALANCE SHEET AND OTHER INFORMATION
(millions - except per share amounts)
(unaudited)
April 2021
CONDENSED GAAP BALANCE SHEET:
Investments, at fair value:
Available-for-sale securities:
Fixed maturities1 (amortized cost: $39,392.3)
$ 40,033.3
Short-term investments (amortized cost: $1,806.6) 1,806.6
Total available-for-sale securities 41,839.9
Equity securities:
Nonredeemable preferred stocks(cost: $1,425.6)
1,495.7
Common equities (cost: $1,203.6) 4,706.3
Total equity securities 6,202.0
Total investments2
48,041.9
Net premiums receivable 9,341.7
Reinsurance recoverables (including $3,996.1 on unpaid loss and LAE reserves) 4,187.5
Deferred acquisition costs 1,341.5
Goodwill and intangible assets 605.2
Other assets 2,712.3
Total assets $ 66,230.1
Unearned premiums $ 15,349.3
Loss and loss adjustment expense reserves 21,776.7
Other liabilities2
5,462.3
Debt 5,397.0
Total liabilities 47,985.3
Shareholders' equity 18,244.8
Total liabilities and shareholders' equity $ 66,230.1
Common shares outstanding 585.1
Common shares repurchased - April 0
Average cost per common share $ 0
Book value per common share $ 30.34
Trailing 12-month return on average common shareholders' equity
Net income 34.2 %
Comprehensive income 33.1 %
Net unrealized pretax gains (losses) on fixed-maturity securities $ 631.1
Increase (decrease) from March 2021 $ 107.6
Increase (decrease) from December 2020 $ (575.5)
Debt-to-total capital ratio 22.8 %
Fixed-income portfolio duration 3.1
Weighted average credit quality AA-
1 As of April 30, 2021, we held certain hybrid securities and recognized a change in fair value of $9.9 million as a realized gain during the period we held these securities.
2 At April 30, 2021, we had $249.8 million of net unsettled security transactions classified in 'other liabilities.'
- 7 -


Monthly Commentary
•The Company has no additional commentary regarding April's results.
Events
We plan to release May results on Wednesday, June 16, 2021, before the market opens.

About Progressive
The Progressive Group of Insurance Companies makes it easy to understand, buy and use auto insurance. Progressive offers choices so consumers can reach us whenever, wherever and however it's most convenient - online at progressive.com, by phone at 1-800-PROGRESSIVE, on a mobile device or in-person with a local agent.

Progressive provides insurance for personal and commercial autos and trucks, motorcycles, boats, recreational vehicles, and homes; it is the third largest auto insurer in the country, a leading seller of motorcycle and commercial auto insurance, and one of the top 15 homeowners insurance carriers.

Founded in 1937, Progressive continues its long history of offering shopping tools and services that save customers time and money, like Name Your Price®, Snapshot®, and HomeQuote Explorer®.

The Common Shares of The Progressive Corporation, the Mayfield Village, Ohio-based holding company, trade publicly at NYSE:PGR.
- 8 -



Safe Harbor Statement Under the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995:Investors are cautioned that certain statements in this report not based upon historical fact are forward-looking statements as defined in the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. These statements often use words such as 'estimate,' 'expect,' 'intend,' 'plan,' 'believe,' and other words and terms of similar meaning, or are tied to future periods, in connection with a discussion of future operating or financial performance. Forward-looking statements are based on current expectations and projections about future events, and are subject to certain risks, assumptions and uncertainties that could cause actual events and results to differ materially from those discussed herein. These risks and uncertainties include, without limitation, uncertainties related to:

•our ability to underwrite and price risks accurately and to charge adequate rates to policyholders;
•our ability to establish accurate loss reserves;
•the impact of severe weather, other catastrophe events and climate change;
•the effectiveness of our reinsurance programs;
•the highly competitive nature of property-casualty insurance markets;
•whether we innovate effectively and respond to our competitors' initiatives;
•whether we effectively manage complexity as we develop and deliver products and customer experiences;
•how intellectual property rights could affect our competitiveness and our business operations;
•whether we adjust claims accurately;
•our ability to maintain a recognized and trusted brand;
•our ability to attract, develop and retain talent and maintain appropriate staffing levels;
•compliance with complex laws and regulations;
•litigation challenging our business practices, and those of our competitors and other companies;
•the impacts of a security breach or other attack involving our computer systems or the systems of one or more of our vendors;
•the secure and uninterrupted operation of the facilities, systems, and business functions that are critical to our business;
•the success of our efforts to develop new products or enter into new areas of business and navigate related risks;
•our continued ability to send and accept electronic payments;
•the possible impairment of our goodwill or intangible assets;
•the performance of our fixed-income and equity investment portfolios;
•the potential elimination of, or change in, the London Interbank Offered Rate;
•our continued ability to access our cash accounts and/or convert securities into cash on favorable terms;
•the impact if one or more parties with which we enter into significant contracts or transact business fail to perform;
•legal restrictions on our insurance subsidiaries' ability to pay dividends to The Progressive Corporation;
•limitations on our ability to pay dividends on our common shares under the terms of our outstanding preferred shares;
•our ability to obtain capital when necessary to support our business and potential growth;
•evaluations by credit rating and other rating agencies;
•the variable nature of our common share dividend policy;
•whether our investments in certain tax-advantaged projects generate the anticipated returns;
•the impact from not managing to short-term earnings expectations in light of our goal to maximize the long-term value of the enterprise;
•impacts from the outbreak of the novel coronavirus, or COVID-19, and the restrictions put in place to help slow and/or stop the spread of the virus; and
•other matters described from time to time in our releases and publications, and in our periodic reports and other documents filed with the United States Securities and Exchange Commission, including, without limitation, the Risk Factors section of our Annual Report on Form 10-K for the year ending December 31, 2020.

In addition, investors should be aware that generally accepted accounting principles prescribe when a company may reserve for particular risks, including litigation exposures. Accordingly, results for a given reporting period could be significantly affected if and when we establish reserves for one or more contingencies. Also, our regular reserve reviews may result in adjustments of varying magnitude as additional information regarding claims activity becomes known. Reported results, therefore, may be volatile in certain accounting periods.

- 9 -

Disclaimer

Progressive Corporation published this content on 19 May 2021 and is solely responsible for the information contained therein. Distributed by Public, unedited and unaltered, on 19 May 2021 13:33:00 UTC.


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Financials (USD)
Sales 2021 45 843 M - -
Net income 2021 3 360 M - -
Net Debt 2021 - - -
P/E ratio 2021 16,3x
Yield 2021 4,01%
Capitalization 55 383 M 55 383 M -
Capi. / Sales 2021 1,21x
Capi. / Sales 2022 1,09x
Nbr of Employees 43 326
Free-Float 73,1%
Chart THE PROGRESSIVE CORPORATION
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The Progressive Corporation Technical Analysis Chart | PGR | US7433151039 | MarketScreener
Technical analysis trends THE PROGRESSIVE CORPORATION
Short TermMid-TermLong Term
TrendsNeutralNeutralNeutral
Income Statement Evolution
Consensus
Sell
Buy
Mean consensus HOLD
Number of Analysts 17
Last Close Price 94,64 $
Average target price 97,86 $
Spread / Average Target 3,40%
EPS Revisions
Managers and Directors
Susan Patricia Griffith President, Chief Executive Officer & Director
John P. Sauerland Chief Financial Officer & Vice President
Lawton Wehle Fitt Chairman
Steven A. Broz Chief Information Officer
Jonathan Bauer Chief Investment Officer
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