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THE GOLDMAN SACHS GROUP, INC.

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Goldman Sachs sees oil in $50-$60 a barrel range through 2020

05/23/2016 | 02:51am EDT

(Reuters) - Goldman Sachs said it expects U.S. oil prices to hold in a $50 (34 pounds) a barrel to $60 (41 pounds) a barrel range through 2020, due mainly to improved shale oil productivity and increased supply from OPEC producers.

"We continue to have a long-term deflationary oil outlook driven by shale productivity, elevated OPEC supply and, in 2016-18, project start-ups," the bank said in an equity research note dated May 20.

The typically bearish bank earlier last week raised its short-term price outlook as it said the market had flipped into a deficit due to production outages in Nigeria and Canada.

In the May 20 note, the bank estimated WTI oil prices would average $45 a barrel in 2016, from $38 previously, but cut its 2017 forecast to $53 a barrel from $58 earlier.

It forecast Brent at $45 a barrel this year, up from $39 previously, and at $55 a barrel in 2017, from $60 previously.

"Over the past year, shale productivity has been in line with our 3 percent to 10 percent estimates and we continue to see a $50-$60 per barrel range of prices through 2020," it said.

Productivity gains through 2020 would "push average breakevens for shale plays below $50/bbl WTI."

Goldman said the threat from a more efficient shale gas had spurred OPEC to maximise output, which could lead to increased supply from the cartel through the end of the decade and slight increases in Saudi Arabia's oil market share.

(Reporting by Apeksha Nair in Bengaluru; Editing by Richard Pullin)


© Reuters 2016
Stocks mentioned in the article
ChangeLast1st jan.
LONDON BRENT OIL -1.17% 74.28 Delayed Quote.46.69%
SAUDI ARABIAN OIL COMPANY -0.14% 34.8 End-of-day quote.-0.57%
THE GOLDMAN SACHS GROUP, INC. -0.71% 374.88 Delayed Quote.42.16%
THE LEAD CO., INC. -0.47% 633 End-of-day quote.-24.64%
WTI -1.10% 72.922 Delayed Quote.52.09%
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Financials (USD)
Sales 2021 55 113 M - -
Net income 2021 18 654 M - -
Net Debt 2021 312 B - -
P/E ratio 2021 7,10x
Yield 2021 1,77%
Capitalization 133 B 133 B -
EV / Sales 2021 8,07x
EV / Sales 2022 10,2x
Nbr of Employees 40 800
Free-Float 37,3%
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Number of Analysts 28
Last Close Price 374,88 $
Average target price 411,80 $
Spread / Average Target 9,85%
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Managers and Directors
David Michael Solomon Chairman & Chief Executive Officer
John Edward Waldron President & Chief Operating Officer
Stephen M. Scherr Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President
Marco Argenti Co-Chief Information Officer
George C. Lee Co-Chief Information Officer
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