Log in
E-mail
Password
Remember
Forgot password ?
Become a member for free
Sign up
Sign up
New member
Sign up for FREE
New customer
Discover our services
Settings
Settings
Dynamic quotes 
OFFON
  1. Homepage
  2. Equities
  3. Japan
  4. Japan Exchange
  5. NOMURA Co., Ltd.
  6. News
  7. Summary
    9716   JP3762400004

NOMURA CO., LTD.

(9716)
  Report
SummaryChartsNewsRatingsCalendarCompanyFinancialsConsensusRevisions 
SummaryMost relevantAll NewsAnalyst Reco.Other languagesPress ReleasesOfficial PublicationsSector newsMarketScreener Strategies

China to relax birth policy but wary of social risks, sources say

05/17/2021 | 06:38am EDT

* China likely to ease birth curbs as demographic worries rise-sources

* But in no rush to change policy over social stability fears

* 2020 census shows births drop, ageing problem worsens

* Economic fallout feared as c.bank leads calls for policy change

BEIJING, May 17 (Reuters) - China will tread carefully in relaxing its birth policies for fear of harming social stability, even as the latest census highlights the urgency to address the country's declining birth trends and ageing population, policy sources said.

Expectations for birth policy reforms are rising after the 2020 census last week showed China's population grew at its slowest in the last decade since the 1950s as births declined and ageing accelerated.

A fertility rate of 1.3 children per woman in 2020, on par with ageing societies like Japan and Italy, underscores the risk for China: the world's second-biggest economy may already be in irreversible population decline without having first accumulated the household wealth of G7 nations.

Top leaders are working out a broader plan to cope with demographic challenges, the sources said, including more effective ways to encourage childbearing by easing financial burdens on couples, rather than simply removing birth curbs.

Raising the retirement age, which Beijing has said will be done gradually, will help slow a decline in the workforce and eventually ease pressures on the under-funded pension system, they said.

China introduced a controversial "one-child policy" in the late 1970s but relaxed restrictions in 2016 to allow all couples to have two children as it tried to rebalance its rapidly-ageing population. The change, however, failed to halt declining births.

The sources said they expect Beijing to encourage more childbearing under the current policy framework, before fully lifting birth restrictions over the next 3-5 years.

Removing birth restrictions could have unintended consequences: a limited impact on city dwellers, who are reluctant to have more children due to high costs, while rural families could expand faster, adding to poverty and employment pressures, the sources said.

"If we free up policy, people in the countryside could be more willing to give birth than those in the cities, and there could be other problems," said a policy source who declined to be identified due to the sensitivity of the matter.

The sources are involved in policy discussions but not the final decision-making process.

The State Council Information Office did not immediately respond to Reuters' request for comment.

China aims to create at least 10 million new urban jobs a year, even as the working age population shrinks.

Liu Huan, an adviser to the Chinese cabinet, said China's main population challenge is not size but ageing, which will put heavy pressure on government finances.

"It's hard to resolve the birth problem given high housing, medical and education costs," he told Reuters. "So we should have comprehensive policies."

CALLS FOR CHANGE

The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has in recent weeks become more vocal about the sensitive population issue.

In April, the PBOC said in a working paper that China should "fully liberalise and vigorously encourage childbirth" to offset the economic impact, saying China should draw lessons from Japan's "lost 20 years".

The demographic shifts could lead to economic stagnation, a falling savings rate and asset price deflation, while the current pension system is ill-prepared for the ageing trajectory, it said.

The proportion of people aged 65 and above hit 13.5% in 2020, up from 8.87% in 2010.

But changes to the present policy will likely be gradual.

"Major policy decisions will come only when the pressure is big enough. Whether we change policy depends on assessments of the impact on social stability," said a government adviser, who also declined to be named.

TALENT DIVIDEND

Deepening rivalry with the United States has raised the urgency for China to build a more innovation-driven economy. Under President Xi Jinping's "dual circulation" strategy, China aims to ease dependence on overseas markets and technology.

"We should make a transition from population dividend to talent dividend," the first policy source said.

The census showed improved education over the last decade. The proportion of people with university education rose to 15.5% from 8.9%, and average years of schooling for people aged 15 or above edged up to 9.9 years from 9.1 years.

Rob Subbaraman, chief economist at Nomura, said "reducing demographic headwinds" will be a rising priority for China as it seeks to avoid the so-called middle income trap.

"The experiences of other Asian countries show that it is challenging to encourage society to increase the fertility rate, but all efforts should be tried to increase the labour force and make it more productive."

(Editing by Tony Munroe and Jacqueline Wong)


© Reuters 2021
All news about NOMURA CO., LTD.
01:29pBanks involved in Archegos meltdown face DOJ probe - Bloomberg Law
RE
10:58aPRESS RELEASE  : Cryptology's estimated NAV as of 23/06/2021 is EUR157.55
DJ
06:32aDOW JONES FXCM DOLLAR INDEX  : Nomura Sees Thailand's Central Bank on Hold This ..
MT
05:39aNomura Adjusts AfreecaTV's Price Target to 132,000 Won From 110,000 Won, Keep..
MT
05:39aNomura Adjusts Samsung Engineering's Price Target to 34,000 Won From 23,000 W..
MT
03:25aPRESS RELEASE  : Cryptology Asset Group PLC:
DJ
06/23INFO EDGE INDIA  : Nomura Adjusts Info Edge (India)'s Price Target to 4,550 Indi..
MT
06/23BANCO BPM S P A  : Italy's Banco BPM Sells $358 Million Bond
MT
06/22FACTBOX : Money, money, money: the cost of Tokyo's pandemic-delayed Games
RE
06/22ADRs End Mostly Lower; GlaxoSmithKline, Petrobras Trade Actively
DJ
More news
Financials
Sales 2022 112 B 1 009 M 1 009 M
Net income 2022 3 300 M 29,8 M 29,8 M
Net Debt 2022 - - -
P/E ratio 2022 31,4x
Yield 2022 2,69%
Capitalization 104 B 934 M 934 M
Capi. / Sales 2022 0,93x
Capi. / Sales 2023 0,90x
Nbr of Employees 2 004
Free-Float 65,9%
Chart NOMURA CO., LTD.
Duration : Period :
NOMURA Co., Ltd. Technical Analysis Chart | 9716 | JP3762400004 | MarketScreener
Technical analysis trends NOMURA CO., LTD.
Short TermMid-TermLong Term
TrendsBullishNeutralNeutral
Income Statement Evolution
Consensus
Sell
Buy
Mean consensus SELL
Number of Analysts 3
Last Close Price 931,00 JPY
Average target price 800,00 JPY
Spread / Average Target -14,1%
EPS Revisions
Managers and Directors
NameTitle
Shuji Enomoto President & Representative Director
Masahiro Nakagawa Managing Director & General Manager-Administration
Mitsuo Sakaba Independent Outside Director
Etsuko Komiya Independent Outside Director
Kiyotaka Okumoto Managing Director & GM-Business Management
Sector and Competitors
1st jan.Capitalization (M$)
NOMURA CO., LTD.9.27%950
CINTAS CORPORATION6.31%39 477
TELEPERFORMANCE SE25.29%23 846
EDENRED SE6.94%14 756
LG CORP.9.91%14 686
BUREAU VERITAS SA21.83%14 235