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Fed, Ukraine worries pressure stocks for third session

01/25/2022 | 04:43am EDT

Jan 25 (Reuters) - Emerging market shares fell sharply for a third straight session on Tuesday as the threat of Russia-Ukraine military conflict and wariness over U.S. monetary policy weighed on sentiment.

Equity markets in Turkey, Hungary and Romania fell between 0.2% and 2.9% in volatile trade as the West stepped up preparations for its response to any Russian invasion of Ukraine.

But after a brutal European session on Monday, other markets were showing signs of stabilising. Russia's IMOEX share index climbed 1.2%, paring the previous session's near 6% slide, while those in South Africa and Poland firmed around 1.3% each.

"Markets are trading very nervously. At the moment, we're seeing increasing tensions being built up around Ukraine from both sides," said Jakob Christensen, chief analyst and head of EM research at Danske Bank.

"The next step to watch out for is the U.S. response to Russian demands," he said.

Given the rouble's slide - 4.7% this year - Christensen expects the Russian central bank to be slightly more hawkish in February and sees a 50 basis points interest rate hike.

Russia's rouble was 0.6% stronger at 78.6 a dollar after sliding to 14-month lows on Monday, while Ukraine's hryvnia edged 0.2% higher after its worst session in almost two years.

Russian OFZ bonds steadied, while hard-currency debt continued to fall on Tuesday.

The broader MSCI index of emerging shares fell 1.1% as investors braced for a hawkish Federal Reserve.

While a 25 basis point hike in March is fully priced in, there is plenty of market speculation about a rate raise as soon as Wednesday when the Fed concludes its two-day meeting.

Ahead of the Chinese New Year holidays, mainland shares lost more than 2%, while the yuan hit 3-1/2 year highs. Singapore's dollar outperformed regional peers after a surprise hike in interest rates.

With tech stocks down and North Korea firing what appeared to be two cruise missiles into the sea off its east coast on Tuesday, South Korea's KOSPI slumped to over one-year lows.

The EM index has lost about 1.8% this month but is nonetheless faring significantly better than MSCI's all-country index, which is down about 6% for the year with pressure coming from the high-value cluster that includes Apple , Amazon and Meta among others.

Hungary's forint was flat ahead of a central bank meeting later in the day when a 30 bps hike to 2.7% is expected, with inflation this year forecast at its strongest in a decade.

On Thursday, South Africa is seen hiking by 25 basis points to 4%.

For GRAPHIC on emerging market FX performance in 2021, see For GRAPHIC on MSCI emerging index performance in 2021, see

For TOP NEWS across emerging markets

For CENTRAL EUROPE market report, see

For TURKISH market report, see

For RUSSIAN market report, see

(Reporting by Susan Mathew in Bengaluru; Editing by Kirsten Donovan)

ę Reuters 2022
Stocks mentioned in the article
ChangeLast1st jan.
APPLE INC. 3.19% 147.11 Delayed Quote.-17.15%
AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR / CHINESE YUAN RENMINBI (AUD/CNY) -0.72% 4.677475 Delayed Quote.2.12%
AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR / US DOLLAR (AUD/USD) -0.80% 0.68878 Delayed Quote.-4.44%
BRITISH POUND / CHINESE YUAN RENMINBI (GBP/CNY) -0.07% 8.312809 Delayed Quote.-3.18%
BRITISH POUND / US DOLLAR (GBP/USD) -0.05% 1.22477 Delayed Quote.-9.79%
CANADIAN DOLLAR / CHINESE YUAN RENMINBI (CAD/CNY) -0.39% 5.235 Delayed Quote.4.70%
CANADIAN DOLLAR / US DOLLAR (CAD/USD) -0.38% 0.77165 Delayed Quote.-2.07%
DANSKE BANK A/S -0.76% 104.85 Delayed Quote.-7.17%
DOW JONES AFRICA TITANS 50 INDEX -0.21% 497.14 Real-time Quote.-7.15%
DOW JONES SOUTH AFRICA(ZAR) 0.00% 1948.21 Real-time Quote.-1.85%
EURO / CHINESE YUAN RENMINBI (EUR/CNY) 0.07% 7.0625 Delayed Quote.-2.50%
EURO / UKRAINE HRYVNIA (EUR/UAH) -0.04% 30.68059 Delayed Quote.-0.86%
EURO / US DOLLAR (EUR/USD) 0.07% 1.04035 Delayed Quote.-8.42%
INDIAN RUPEE / CHINESE YUAN RENMINBI (INR/CNY) -0.27% 0.087383 Delayed Quote.2.76%
INDIAN RUPEE / US DOLLAR (INR/USD) -0.27% 0.012873 Delayed Quote.-3.84%
KOSPI COMPOSITE INDEX 2.06% 2604.04 Real-time Quote.-12.51%
META PLATFORMS, INC. 3.86% 198.62 Delayed Quote.-40.95%
NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR / US DOLLAR (NZD/USD) -0.78% 0.62403 Delayed Quote.-8.10%
S&P AFRICA 40 INDEX -0.18% 158.77 Real-time Quote.-9.14%
UKRAINE HRYVNIA / EURO (UAH/EUR) 0.04% 0.032593 Delayed Quote.0.87%
UNITED STATES DOLLAR (B) / CHINESE YUAN IN HONG KONG (USD/CNH) 0.15% 6.80703 Delayed Quote.6.83%
US DOLLAR / CHINESE YUAN RENMINBI (USD/CNY) 0.00% 6.788 Delayed Quote.6.86%
US DOLLAR / RUSSIAN ROUBLE (USD/RUB) -0.39% 64.25 Delayed Quote.-13.93%
US DOLLAR / TURKISH LIRA (USD/TRY) 0.03% 15.48843 Delayed Quote.16.23%
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Net income 2022 32 664 M - -
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