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    A015760   KR7015760002

KOREA ELECTRIC POWER CORPORATION

(A015760)
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South Korea first-quarter thermal coal imports set for 10-year low on anti-pollution measures

03/25/2020 | 09:12pm EDT

South Korea's first-quarter thermal coal imports are set to fall to a decade-low due to stricter air pollution measures, while the coronavirus outbreak has reduced the country's demand for electricity.

South Korea, the world's No.4 coal importer, is expected to import around 19.85 million tonnes of thermal coal for the first three months, down 19.2% year-on-year, according to Reuters calculations based on customs data and ship tracking data from Refinitiv Eikon.

That would be the country's lowest first-quarter imports since 2010 when it imported 19.55 million tonnes. Demand is normally high during the quarter, which covers the winter months, running at 24-26 million tonnes over the past three years.

The drop in imports comes after South Korea imposed tougher restrictions on coal-fired power from December through March, halting nearly half of the country's 60 coal power plants by March as part of efforts to improve air quality.

Meanwhile, analysts said the coronavirus outbreak had reduced demand for electricity as business and factory activity slows. South Korea has faced the region's biggest COVID-19 epidemic outside of China, with over 9,000 cases.

"We expect South Korea's overall power consumption to fall in light of growth pressures stemming from the COVID-19 outbreak," said Daine Loh, an analyst at Fitch Solutions.

South Korea's daily peak power demand has averaged 70,633 megawatts (MW) so far in the first quarter of 2020, down 3.5% from 73,224 MW a year earlier, according to data from Korea Electric Power Corp (KEPCO).

Coal power typically produces about 40% of South Korea's total electricity, followed by nuclear and gas power.

With reduced power consumption and demand in the midst of the coronavirus outbreak, coal power's share of total power generation is expected at nearly 39% in 2020, down from 40% in 2019, Loh said.

Coal could also face increased competition from gas-fired power on the back of lower oil prices, said Shirley Zhang, an analyst from Wood Mackenzie.

In the first three months of the year, South Korea's liquefied natural gas (LNG) imports are expected to grow 25.2% year-on-year to 12.9 million tonnes, Refinitiv data showed.

"Lower oil prices will keep the LNG price lower, which will support anti-coal policy moves and increase the economic incentives for it to potentially outcompete some coal generation if sustained low and long enough," Zhang said.

By Jane Chung


© Reuters 2020
Stocks mentioned in the article
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BYD COMPANY LIMITED 3.46% 239 End-of-day quote.17.62%
KOREA ELECTRIC POWER CORPORATION -0.60% 24900 End-of-day quote.-9.12%
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Financials
Sales 2021 58 808 B 51,0 B 51,0 B
Net income 2021 -887 B -0,77 B -0,77 B
Net Debt 2021 69 285 B 60,1 B 60,1 B
P/E ratio 2021 -21,7x
Yield 2021 1,53%
Capitalization 15 985 B 13 876 M 13 875 M
EV / Sales 2021 1,45x
EV / Sales 2022 1,43x
Nbr of Employees -
Free-Float 48,4%
Chart KOREA ELECTRIC POWER CORPORATION
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Korea Electric Power Corporation Technical Analysis Chart | A015760 | KR7015760002 | MarketScreener
Technical analysis trends KOREA ELECTRIC POWER CORPORATION
Short TermMid-TermLong Term
TrendsNeutralNeutralNeutral
Income Statement Evolution
Consensus
Sell
Buy
Mean consensus OUTPERFORM
Number of Analysts 21
Last Close Price 24 900,00 KRW
Average target price 28 333,33 KRW
Spread / Average Target 13,8%
EPS Revisions
Managers and Directors
Seung-il Cheong President, Chief Executive Officer & Director
Jeong-soo Kim Head of Finance & IR Team
Jwa-Kwan Kim Independent Director
Hyo-Seong Park Independent Director
Hyeon-Bin Lee Director & Head-Management Support
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