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    ALCLA   FR0004152882

CLASQUIN

(ALCLA)
  Report
Real-time Quote. Real-time Euronext Paris - 10/27 11:28:35 am
73.8 EUR   +1.65%
09/23CLASQUIN : 2021_09_23 Kepler
PU
09/23CLASQUIN : 2021 – Half year results presentation
PU
09/23CLASQUIN : 2021 – Résultats Semestriels
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SummaryMost relevantAll NewsAnalyst Reco.Other languagesPress ReleasesOfficial PublicationsSector news

CLASQUIN : 2021_09_23 Kepler

09/23/2021 | 08:42am EDT

This document is being provided for the exclusive use of Baptiste DE LEUDEVILLE - Kepler Cheuvreux - generated at 2021-09-23 10:26:46

News comment

Release date: 23 September 2021

Clasquin Buy

Baptiste de Leudeville

Equity Research Analyst

+33 1 53 65 36 55

bdeleudeville@keplercheuvreux.com

France | Support services

Beta Profile:

MCap: EUR152.1m

Target Price:

EUR 65.00

Current Price:

EUR 66.00

Up/downside:

-1.5%

Market data:

22 September 2021

Bloomberg: ALCLA FP

Reuters: ALCLA.PA

Free float

44%

Avg. daily volume

0.1

(EURm)

YTD abs performance

79.8%

52-week high/low (EUR)

66.00/25.30

Extreme freight market conditions drive record earnings

Key points:

  • Exceptional activity in H1, driven by solid demand recovery and the surge in global freight rates, is reflected in sharp YOY earnings growth (+270% in EBIT, adj.).
  • In line with expectations. No change in estimates.

The outlook on demand and supply conditions looks positive for Clasquin, suggesting another strong H2.

EBITDA doubles, EBIT/GP ratio near 20%

  • Clasquin took advantage of exceptional market conditions in the first six months of 2021. The market is experiencing a major disruption in supply chains (port and airport congestion, shortage of containers). Clasquin took advantage of the volatility seen in freight rates.
  • Opex was up 31% YOY in H1, lower than GP growth (+43%), resulting in a much higher EBIT conversion ratio (c. 20% vs c. 8%). The increase in opex was driven by an important hiring effort to keep client supply chains up and running in extreme market conditions and to deploy strengthened resources and solutions to make up for market operator shortcomings (hiring containers, cross-continental route offerings, chartering, etc.). Besides, the base effect was particularly demanding given the multiple temporary expense relief measures taken in H1-20 at the peak of the first pandemic wave.

Table 1: H1 results

H1-21

H1-20

Change

Gross Profit

51.8

36.2

43%

EBITDA

13.7

7.0

96%

EBIT, adj.

10.3

2.8

268%

% of GP

19.9%

7.7%

Net profit

6.5

0.7

829%

Source: Kepler Cheuvreux

Solid H2 outlook

The outlook on demand and supply conditions looks positive for Clasquin, suggesting another strong H2. Industry sources say there is a positive outlook for demand to remain strong at least until Q2-2022 and the Chinese New Year. The normalisation on the freight rates front seems unlikely to come soon, as conditions in the global supply chain remain tight to this day.

Bolt-on acquisitions and product development

  • Clasquin completed three acquisitions in the first half for a total of EUR4m additional gross profit: 1) Colombus Transit in Spain (5-member team managing EUR0.7m GP); 2) Transports Petit International (55.6% stake) in France, a company managing EUR1.8m of GP specialised in charter flights carrying sensitive, high-value goods to African markets (coherent with Clasquin' s growth strategy to expand in niche market segments); and 3) assets linked to the international business of Interlines in Belgium (20 people, EUR1.5m GP).
  • Clasquin is pursuing the deployment of its collaborative digital platform "Live by Clasquin". The platform covers a scope of 160 clients generating 24% of GP.

Kepler Cheuvreux and the issuer have agreed that Kepler Cheuvreux will produce and disseminate investment research on the said issuer as a service to the issuer.

IMPORTANT. Please refer at the back of the report for important

keplercheuvreux.com

information and disclosures.

regulated by the Autorité des Marchés Financiers in France.

This research is the product of Kepler Cheuvreux, which is authorized and

This document is being provided for the exclusive use of Baptiste DE LEUDEVILLE - Kepler Cheuvreux - generated at 2021-09-23 10:26:46

Clasquin Buy | Target Price: EUR 65.00

Appendix 1: Research framework

Investment case

 Clasquin capitalises on its differentiating profile in the

freight forwarding industry (medium-sized global player),which enables it to offer end-to-endsolutions like industry giants do, but with higher degrees of customisation and flexibility.

 In recent history, revenue at Clasquin usually have grownfaster than that of competitors. Growth at Clasquin is balanced well and diversified.

 In 2021, the demand and supply conditions looks very

supportive for the freight forwarding industry, including Clasquin. We expect strong double digit growth in volumeand gross profit, as well EBIT margin expansion.

Catalysts

 Surge in freight rates due to high demand and tight supply chain conditions.

 Broadening of offering (logistics, supply chain, digital offer).

 Business ramp-up in fast-growing regions for trade.

Last model update: 02 September 2021

Valuation methodology

 DCF (7.4% WACC, 3.4% terminal growth, 13.4% EBIT/GP

margin).

Risks to our rating

 Lower freight rates due to overcapacity.

Appendix 2: Company description

Clasquin is an air and sea freight forwarder with a focus on Asia/Europe, Asia/US and Europe/Latam flows. Thanks to external growth operation managed in 2008 Clasquin also operates road transport and logistics in France under the name Gueppe- Clasquin.

Management

Yves Revol, CEO | Philippe Lons, CFO

Key shareholders

Free float: 44.47% | REVOL YVES: 46.16% | Edmond de Rothschild

Asset Management (F...): 5.66% | MORIN HUGUES: 5.06%

Appendix 3: share price perf.

70 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25

Sep 20

Dec 20

Mar 21

Jun 21

Sep

Price

DJ Stoxx 600 (rebased)

Appendix 4: SWOT analysis

  • Strengths

 International integrated network (US, Europe, Asia).

 Differentiated profile (family-owned business, medium- size company).

 Diversified and balanced customer base (first customer <3% of GP).

 Strong presence in China.

  • Opportunities

 Development of niche expertise /verticals (e.g. wine, finearts).

 New TMS deployed (2018) to boost productivity in the medium term

 Broadening of offering (overseas logistics, consulting, etc.).

  • Weaknesses

 Limited presence in the US.

 Lower volume shipped, GP/volume, and conversion rate than competitors.

  • Threats

 Slowing worldwide trade (2018-19). High volatility of sea freight rates

keplercheuvreux.com 2

This document is being provided for the exclusive use of Baptiste DE LEUDEVILLE - Kepler Cheuvreux - generated at 2021-09-23 10:26:46

Clasquin Buy | Target Price: EUR 65.00

Appendix 5: Key financials

Last model update: 02 September 2021

Market data date: 22 September 2021

FY to 31/12 (EUR)

12/14

12/15

12/16

12/17

12/18

12/19

12/20

12/21E

12/22E

12/23E

Income Statement (EURm)

Sales

201.7

234.2

235.0

290.6

308.3

331.3

392.0

508.9

490.8

494.9

% Change

1.8%

16.1%

0.3%

23.6%

6.1%

7.4%

18.3%

29.8%

-3.5%

0.8%

EBITDA adjusted

4.6

8.2

7.1

7.4

9.3

13.9

16.7

27.5

21.7

20.1

EBITDA adj. margin (%)

2.3%

3.5%

3.0%

2.5%

3.0%

4.2%

4.3%

5.4%

4.4%

4.1%

EBIT adjusted

3.1

6.3

4.0

5.4

5.8

8.3

9.6

20.0

14.1

12.4

EBIT adj. margin (%)

1.5%

2.7%

1.7%

1.9%

1.9%

2.5%

2.5%

3.9%

2.9%

2.5%

Net financial items & associates

0.7

1.4

0.7

0.8

0.8

1.1

-0.4

-0.5

-0.5

-0.5

Others

-1.0

-1.5

-1.1

-1.4

-1.1

-1.7

-1.2

-1.5

-1.5

-1.5

Tax

-0.9

-1.9

-1.5

-1.9

-2.1

-3.2

-2.6

-6.5

-4.3

-3.7

Net profit from continuing operations

1.8

4.2

2.0

2.9

3.4

4.5

5.4

11.5

7.7

6.6

Net profit from discontinuing activities

0.7

-0.3

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Net profit before minorities

2.5

4.0

2.0

2.9

3.4

4.5

5.4

11.5

7.7

6.6

Net profit reported

2.1

3.3

1.6

2.5

2.8

3.9

5.1

11.2

7.4

6.3

Net profit adjusted

2.1

3.3

1.6

2.5

2.8

3.9

5.1

11.2

7.4

6.3

Cash Flow Statement (EURm)

Levered post tax CF before capex

6.5

8.2

1.3

2.4

4.4

16.2

2.1

6.0

23.2

20.1

Capex

-2.9

-2.4

-3.6

-3.6

-3.6

-2.5

-1.5

-3.0

-2.9

-2.9

Free cash flow

3.7

5.8

-2.2

-1.2

0.8

13.7

0.6

3.0

20.4

17.2

Acquisitions & divestments

-1.8

-8.5

-0.6

0.1

-1.8

-7.1

0.3

0.0

0.0

0.0

Dividend paid

-2.2

-2.1

-2.9

-1.9

-2.6

-1.7

-0.6

-3.6

-6.3

-4.4

Others

-0.4

1.5

-0.1

-1.5

0.0

-0.1

-1.7

-1.0

-1.0

0.0

Change in net financial debt

0.6

3.2

5.9

4.6

3.6

-4.8

1.5

1.6

-13.1

-12.9

Balance Sheet (EURm)

Intangible assets

11.4

17.3

19.1

19.6

22.0

30.6

29.6

28.9

28.0

27.2

Tangible assets

6.2

3.8

5.2

5.1

5.7

14.9

13.5

12.7

11.9

11.1

Financial & other non-current assets

1.8

2.9

2.8

2.8

2.6

2.3

2.8

2.8

2.8

2.8

Total shareholders' equity

23.3

23.8

23.2

22.9

24.5

26.8

30.9

38.8

40.3

42.6

Pension provisions

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.9

0.8

1.1

1.3

1.3

1.3

1.3

Liabilities and provisions

67.4

80.5

89.6

99.0

111.9

144.4

161.9

196.8

181.1

170.5

Net debt

0.7

5.2

11.6

13.6

16.8

40.0

47.8

52.4

42.4

33.7

Net financial debt

0.7

5.2

11.6

12.7

16.0

29.3

37.5

41.9

31.7

22.8

IFRS 16 debt

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

9.7

9.0

9.2

9.4

9.6

Net working capital

-1.1

0.2

4.0

8.7

11.3

22.1

35.7

50.9

44.2

39.6

Invested capital

16.6

21.3

28.3

33.3

39.0

67.7

78.8

92.5

84.1

78.9

Per share data (EUR)

EPS adjusted

0.93

1.45

0.69

1.08

1.21

1.68

2.22

4.86

3.22

2.74

EPS adj and fully diluted

0.93

1.45

0.69

1.08

1.21

1.68

2.21

4.83

3.20

2.72

% Change

-3.4%

57.0%

-52.4%

56.5%

12.3%

38.1%

31.8%

118.8%

-33.9%

-14.8%

EPS reported

0.93

1.45

0.69

1.08

1.21

1.68

2.22

4.86

3.22

2.74

Cash flow per share

2.85

3.57

0.58

1.04

1.92

7.01

0.91

2.61

10.09

8.73

Book value per share

9.22

9.42

8.78

8.57

9.31

9.53

11.68

14.96

15.46

16.32

Dividend per share

0.80

1.25

0.80

0.80

0.65

0.00

1.30

2.43

1.61

1.37

Number of shares, YE (m)

2.30

2.30

2.30

2.30

2.30

2.30

2.30

2.30

2.30

2.30

Ratios

ROE (%)

10.1%

15.6%

7.6%

12.5%

13.6%

17.9%

21.0%

36.5%

21.1%

17.3%

ROIC (%)

na

22.8%

9.3%

10.6%

9.8%

9.1%

8.9%

14.9%

10.2%

9.7%

ND(F+IFRS16) / EBITDA (x)

0.2

0.6

1.6

1.7

1.7

2.8

2.8

1.9

1.9

1.6

Gearing (%)

3.0%

21.9%

50.0%

55.7%

65.2%

109.2%

121.3%

108.1%

78.7%

53.6%

Valuation

P/E adjusted

27.7

20.3

42.9

30.7

30.1

20.6

13.8

13.6

20.5

24.1

P/E adjusted and fully diluted

27.7

20.3

42.9

30.7

30.1

20.6

13.9

13.7

20.6

24.2

P/BV

2.8

3.1

3.4

3.9

3.9

3.6

2.6

4.4

4.3

4.0

P/CF

9.0

8.2

50.8

31.9

19.0

4.9

33.6

25.3

6.5

7.6

Dividend yield (%)

3.1%

4.2%

2.7%

2.4%

1.8%

0.0%

4.2%

3.7%

2.4%

2.1%

FCF yield (%)

6.2%

8.6%

-3.2%

-1.6%

1.0%

17.1%

0.8%

2.0%

13.4%

11.3%

EV/Sales

0.3

0.3

0.4

0.3

0.3

0.4

0.3

0.4

0.4

0.4

EV/EBITDA adj.

13.5

9.1

11.7

12.6

11.2

9.0

7.4

7.6

9.2

9.5

EV/EBIT adj.

19.9

11.9

20.6

17.1

18.0

15.1

12.7

10.4

14.2

15.4

keplercheuvreux.com 3

This document is being provided for the exclusive use of Baptiste DE LEUDEVILLE - Kepler Cheuvreux - generated at 2021-09-23 10:26:46

Clasquin Buy | Target Price: EUR 65.00

Research ratings and important disclosures

The term "KEPLER CHEUVREUX" shall, unless the context otherwise requires, mean each of KEPLER CHEUVREUX and its affiliates, subsidiaries and related companies (see "Regulators" table below).

The investment recommendation(s) referred to in this report was (were) completed on 23/09/2021 6:28 (GMT) and was first disseminated on 23/09/2021 6:34 (GMT). Unless otherwise stated, all prices are aligned with the "Market Data date" on the front page of this report.

Disclosure checklist - Potential conflict of interests

Company Name

ISIN

Disclosure

Clasquin

FR0004152882

KEPLER CHEUVREUX and the issuer have agreed that KEPLER CHEUVREUX will produce and disseminate investment

research on the said issuer as a service to the issuer

Organizational and administrative arrangements to avoid and prevent conflicts of interests

KEPLER CHEUVREUX promotes and disseminates independent investment research and have implemented written procedures designed to identify and manage potential conflicts of interest that arise in connection with its research business, which are available upon request. The KEPLER CHEUVREUX research analysts and other staff involved in issuing and disseminating research reports operate independently of KEPLER CHEUVREUX Investment Banking business. Information barriers and procedures are in place between the research analysts and staff involved in securities trading for the account of KEPLER CHEUVREUX or clients to ensure that price sensitive information is handled according to applicable laws and regulations.

It is Kepler Cheuvreux' policy not to disclose the rating to the issuer before publication and dissemination. Nevertheless, this document, in whole or in part, and with the exclusion of ratings, target prices and any other information that could lead to determine its valuation, may have been provided to the issuer prior to publication and dissemination, solely with the aim of verifying factual accuracy.

Please refer to www.keplercheuvreux.com for further information relating to research and conflict of interest management.

Analyst disclosures

The functional job title of the person(s) responsible for the recommendations contained in this report is Equity/Credit Research Analyst unless otherwise stated on the cover. Name of the Research Analyst(s): Baptiste de Leudeville

Regulation AC - Analyst Certification: Each Equity/Credit Research Analyst(s) listed on the front-page of this report, principally responsible for the preparation and content of all or any identified portion of this research report hereby certifies that, with respect to each issuer or security or any identified portion of the report with respect to an issuer or security that the equity research analyst covers in this research report, all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect their personal views about those issuer(s) or securities. Each Equity/Credit Research Analyst(s) also certifies that no part of their compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendation(s) or view(s) expressed by that equity research analyst in this research report.

Each Equity/Credit Research Analyst certifies that he is acting independently and impartially from KEPLER CHEUVREUX shareholders, directors and is not affected by any current or potential conflict of interest that may arise from any KEPLER CHEUVREUX activities.

Analyst Compensation: The research analyst(s) primarily responsible for the preparation of the content of the research report attest that no part of the analyst's(s') compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations expressed by the research analyst(s) in the research report. The research analyst's(s') compensation is, however, determined by the overall economic performance of KEPLER CHEUVREUX.

Registration of non-USAnalysts: Unless otherwise noted, the non-US analysts listed on the front of this report are employees of KEPLER CHEUVREUX, which is a non-US affiliate and parent company of Kepler Capital Markets, Inc. a SEC registered and FINRA member broker-dealer. Equity/Credit Research Analysts employed by KEPLER CHEUVREUX, are not registered/qualified as research analysts under FINRA/NYSE rules, may not be associated persons of Kepler Capital Markets, Inc. and may not be subject to NASD Rule 2711 and NYSE Rule 472 restrictions on communications with covered companies, public appearances, and trading securities held by a research analyst account.

Research ratings

Rating ratio Kepler Cheuvreux Q2 2021

Rating Breakdown

A

B

Buy

54%

70%

Hold

35%

24%

Reduce

7%

1%

Not Rated/Under Review/Accept Offer

4%

5%

Total

100%

100%

Source: Kepler Cheuvreux

  1. % of all research recommendations
  2. % of issuers to which material services of investment firms are supplied

12 months rating history

The below table shows the history of recommendations and target prices changes issued by KEPLER CHEUVREUX research department (Equity and Credit) over a 12 months period.

Company Name

Date

Business Line

Rating

Target Price

Closing Price

Clasquin (EUR)

25/09/2020 07:58

Equity Research

Buy

36.00

31.90

25/02/2021 09:05

Equity Research

Buy

49.00

43.70

02/09/2021 10:45

Equity Research

Buy

65.00

57.80

Credit research does not issue target prices. Left intentionally blank.

Please refer to the following link https://research.keplercheuvreux.com/disclosure/stock/ for a full list of investment recommendations issued over the last 12 months by the author(s) and contributor(s) of this report on any financial instruments.

Equity research

Rating system

KEPLER CHEUVREUX equity research ratings and target prices are issued in absolute terms, not relative to any given benchmark. A rating on a stock is set after assessing the twelve months expected upside or downside of the stock derived from the analyst's fair value (target price) and in the light of the risk profile of the company. Ratings are defined as follows:

keplercheuvreux.com 4

This document is being provided for the exclusive use of Baptiste DE LEUDEVILLE - Kepler Cheuvreux - generated at 2021-09-23 10:26:46

Clasquin Buy | Target Price: EUR 65.00

Buy: The minimum expected upside is 10% over next 12 months (the minimum required upside could be higher in light of the company's risk profile).

Hold: The expected upside is below 10% (the expected upside could be higher in light of the company's risk profile).

Reduce: There is an expected downside.

Accept offer: In the context of a total or partial take-over bid, squeeze-out or similar share purchase proposals, the offer price is considered to be fairly valuing the shares.

Reject offer: In the context of a total or partial take-over bid, squeeze-out or similar share purchase proposals, the offered price is considered to be undervaluing the shares.

Under review: An event occurred with an expected significant impact on our target price and we cannot issue a recommendation before having processed that new information and/or without a new share price reference.

Not rated: The stock is not covered.

Restricted: A recommendation, target price and/or financial forecast is not disclosed further to compliance and/or other regulatory considerations. Due to share prices volatility, ratings and target prices may occasionally and temporarily be inconsistent with the above definition.

Valuation methodology and risks

Unless otherwise stated in this report, target prices and investment recommendations are determined based on fundamental research methodologies and relies on commonly used valuation methodologies such as Discounted Cash Flow (DCF), valuation multiples comparison with history and peers, Dividend Discount Model (DDM).

Valuation methodologies and models can be highly dependent on macroeconomic factors (such as the price of commodities, exchange rates and interest rates) as well as other external factors including taxation, regulation and geopolitical changes (such as tax policy changes, strikes or war). In addition, investors' confidence and market sentiment can affect the valuation of companies. The valuation is also based on expectations that might change rapidly and without notice, depending on developments specific to individual industries. Whichever valuation method is used there is a significant risk that the target price will not be achieved within the expected timeframe.

Unless otherwise stated, models used are proprietary. Additional information about the proprietary models used in this report is accessible on request.

KEPLER CHEUVREUX' equity research policy is to update research rating when it deems appropriate in the light of new findings, markets development and any relevant information that can impact the analyst's view and opinion.

Regulators

Location

Regulator

Abbreviation

KEPLER CHEUVREUX S.A - France

Autorité des Marchés Financiers

AMF

KEPLER CHEUVREUX, Madrid branch

Comisión Nacional del Mercado de Valores

CNMV

KEPLER CHEUVREUX, Frankfurt branch

Bundesanstalt für Finanzdienstleistungsaufsicht

BaFin

KEPLER CHEUVREUX, Milan branch

Commissione Nazionale per le Società e la Borsa

CONSOB

KEPLER CHEUVREUX, Amsterdam branch

Autoriteit Financiële Markten

AFM

KEPLER CHEUVREUX (Switzerland) SA, Zurich branch

Swiss Financial Market Supervisory Authority

FINMA

KEPLER CAPITAL MARKETS, Inc.

Financial Industry Regulatory Authority

FINRA

KEPLER CHEUVREUX, London branch

Financial Conduct Authority

FCA

KEPLER CHEUVREUX, Vienna branch

Austrian Financial Services Authority

FMA

KEPLER CHEUVREUX, Stockholm branch

Finansinspektionen

FI

KEPLER CHEUVREUX Oslo branch

Finanstilsynet

NFSA

KEPLER CHEUVREUX, Bruxelles branch

Autorité des Services et Marchés Financiers

FSMA

KEPLER CHEUVREUX is authorised and regulated by both Autorité de Contrôle Prudentiel and Autorité des Marchés Financiers.

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Disclaimer

Clasquin SA published this content on 23 September 2021 and is solely responsible for the information contained therein. Distributed by Public, unedited and unaltered, on 23 September 2021 12:41:00 UTC.


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09/02CLASQUIN : 2021_09_01 cmcic
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09/02CLASQUIN : 2021_09_01 Kepler
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Analyst Recommendations on CLASQUIN
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Financials
Sales 2021 425 M 493 M 493 M
Net income 2021 12,1 M 14,0 M 14,0 M
Net Debt 2021 36,2 M 42,0 M 42,0 M
P/E ratio 2021 14,1x
Yield 2021 1,76%
Capitalization 169 M 196 M 196 M
EV / Sales 2021 0,48x
EV / Sales 2022 0,38x
Nbr of Employees 925
Free-Float 36,5%
Chart CLASQUIN
Duration : Period :
CLASQUIN Technical Analysis Chart | ALCLA | FR0004152882 | MarketScreener
Technical analysis trends CLASQUIN
Short TermMid-TermLong Term
TrendsBullishBullishBullish
Income Statement Evolution
Consensus
Sell
Buy
Mean consensus BUY
Number of Analysts 2
Last Close Price 73,80 €
Average target price 73,50 €
Spread / Average Target -0,41%
EPS Revisions
Managers and Directors
Hugues Morin Group Chief Executive Officer, MD & Director
Philippe Lons Chief Financial Officer, Director & Deputy MD
Yves Revol Executive Chairman
Frederic Serra Group Chief Information Officer
Benoit Comte Chief Operating Officer-France South
Sector and Competitors