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U.S. Crude-Oil Stockpiles Likely to Fall in DOE Data, Analysts Say -- Update

09/28/2021 | 04:59pm EDT

By Dan Molinski

U.S. crude-oil stockpiles are unanimously expected to have decreased last week in data due Wednesday from the U.S. Energy Department, according to a survey of analysts and traders by The Wall Street Journal.

Estimates from 11 analysts and traders showed U.S. oil inventories are projected to have fallen by 2.5 million barrels in the week ended Sept. 24, with forecasts ranging from decreases of 1.5 million barrels to 4 million barrels.

The closely watched survey from the DOE's Energy Information Administration is scheduled for release at 10:30 a.m. ET Wednesday.

Gasoline stockpiles are expected to rise by 900,000 barrels from the previous week, according to analysts. Estimates range from a decrease of 3 million barrels to an increase of 3.1 million barrels.

Stocks of distillates, which include heating oil and diesel, are expected to fall 1.3 million barrels from the previous week. Forecasts range from a decrease of 3 million barrels to an increase of 2.9 million barrels.

Refinery use likely rose by 0.8 percentage point to 88.3% of capacity. Forecasts range from a decline of 1.5 percentage points to an increase of 3 percentage points. Two analysts didn't make a forecast.

The American Petroleum Institute, an industry group, said late Tuesday that its own data for the week showed a 4.1-million-barrel increase in crude supplies, a 3.6-million-barrel rise in gasoline stocks and a 2.5-million-barrel increase in distillate inventories, according to a source.

 
                                                                 Refinery 
                                   Crude  Gasoline  Distillates   Use 
Again Capital                       -2.3       1.6         -1.9       0.8 
Citi Futures                        -1.5       1.5         -2.5        -1 
Commodity Research Group            -1.8       0.5         -1.4      -1.5 
Confluence Investment Management      -3         2           -1       0.5 
DTN                                 -2.2       1.2         -1.8       0.4 
Excel Futures                       -3.8       3.1         -1.6       1.4 
Spartan Capital Securities          -2.1      -1.7          2.9       n/f 
 
Mizuho                                -2         1           -1         3 
Price Futures Group                   -4        -3           -3         1 
Ritterbusch and Associates            -2       1.5         -1.2       2.9 
 
Tradition Energy                      -3         2           -2       n/f 
 
AVERAGE                             -2.5       0.9         -1.3       0.8 
 

Note: Numbers in millions of barrels, with the exception of refinery use, which is in percentage points.

n/f = no forecast

Write to Dan Molinski at dan.molinski@wsj.com

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(MORE TO FOLLOW) Dow Jones Newswires

09-28-21 1658ET

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