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U.S. Crude-Oil Stockpiles Likely to Fall in DOE Data, Analysts Say -- Update

07/13/2021 | 05:02pm EDT

By Dan Molinski

U.S. crude-oil stockpiles are unanimously expected to decrease from the previous week in data due Wednesday from the U.S. Energy Department, according to a survey of analysts and traders by The Wall Street Journal.

Estimates from 11 analysts and traders showed U.S. oil inventories are projected to have fallen by 4 million barrels in the week ended July 9, with forecasts ranging from declines of 1.6 million barrels to 7.4 million barrels.

The closely watched survey from the DOE's Energy Information Administration is scheduled for release at 10:30 a.m. ET Wednesday.

Gasoline stockpiles are expected to fall by 1.8 million barrels from the previous week, according to analysts. Estimates range from a decrease of 5 million barrels to an increase of 2.5 million barrels.

Stocks of distillates, which include heating oil and diesel, are expected to rise by 900,000 barrels from the previous week. Forecasts range from a decrease of 1 million barrels to an increase of 3 million barrels.

Refinery use likely rose by 0.4 percentage point to 92.6% of capacity. Forecasts range from a decrease of 0.5 percentage point to a 1 percentage-point increase. Two analysts didn't make a forecast.

The American Petroleum Institute, an industry group, said late Tuesday that its own data for the week showed a 4.1-million-barrel decrease in crude supplies, a 1.5-million-barrel decrease in gasoline stocks and a 3.7-million-barrel rise in distillate inventories, according to a source.

                                                                  Refinery 
                                    Crude  Gasoline  Distillates   Use 
 Again Capital                       -3.4      -2.6           -1       0.3 
 Citi Futures                        -5.5      -1.5          1.5       0.5 
 Commodity Research Group            -4.7      -0.9          0.3         1 
 Confluence Investment Management      -3      -1.5            1      -0.5 
 DTN                                 -3.5      -2.5          1.5       0.5 
 Excel Futures                       -5.1        -5          1.6       0.7 
 Spartan Capital Securities          -1.6      -2.5         -0.6       n/f 
 Mizuho                                -3        -1            1      -0.5 
 Price Futures Group                   -4        -2           -1         1 
 Ritterbusch and Associates          -7.4       2.5          2.4       0.2 
 Tradition Energy                      -3      -2.5            3       n/f 
 
 AVERAGE                             -4.0      -1.8          0.9       0.4 

Note: Numbers in millions of barrels, with the exception of refinery use, which is in percentage points.

n/f = no forecast

Write to Dan Molinski at dan.molinski@wsj.com

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

07-13-21 1701ET

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