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S.Korea's exports likely resumed decline in October due to holiday period

10/29/2020 | 12:00am EST

* reuters://realtime/verb=Open/url=cpurl://apps.cp./Apps/econ-polls?RIC=KREXP%3DECI poll data

* Oct exports -4.0% y/y, imports -2.1% y/y - poll

* Sept industrial output +3.0% s/adj m/m vs -0.7% in Aug - poll

* Oct CPI +0.7% y/y vs +1.0% in Sept - poll

* Trade data Nov. 1, 9 a.m.

SEOUL, Oct 29 (Reuters) - South Korea's exports likely fell in October on an annual basis as businesses worked two days less this month due to the Chuseok holiday, a Reuters poll showed on Thursday, while resurging coronavirus cases abroad overshadowed the outlook.

Outbound shipments likely fell 4.0% this month from a year earlier, the poll showed, as the three-day holiday fell in early October this year. Exports surged 7.6% in September - the first year-on-year rise in seven months.

Average daily exports, however, were expected to grow for the first time in nine months, adding to recent signs that Asia's fourth largest economy is seeing a moderate recovery.

"South Korea's exports will fall back to negative territory again due to fewer working days, but the average per-day exports may post growth, indicating resilient exports recovery," said Chun Kyu-yeon, economist at Hana Financial Investment.

South Korea's economy returned to growth in the third quarter after seeing its sharpest contraction in more than a decade, thanks to fiscal stimulus and a gradual recovery in exports.

Economists are now worried surging coronavirus cases globally and fresh lockdowns in Europe may hurt overseas demand for South Korean exports.

"Exports and industrial production will continue to face external headwinds amid the pandemic and U.S.-China tensions, though China's economic upturn could help to lend some support," said Lloyd Chan, economist at Oxford Economics.

According to the poll, 15 economists expected industrial output to have grown 3.0% month-on-month on a seasonally adjusted basis in September after falling 0.7% in August.

Thirteen economists in the poll expected consumer prices to have risen a median 0.7% in October from a year earlier, slower than the previous month's 1.0% rise. (Reporting by Joori Roh; Editing by Ana Nicolaci da Costa)

© Reuters 2020
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