Log in
E-mail
Password
Show password
Remember
Forgot password ?
Become a member for free
Sign up
Sign up
New member
Sign up for FREE
New customer
Discover our services
Settings
Settings
Dynamic quotes 
OFFON
News: Latest News
Latest NewsCompaniesMarketsEconomy & ForexCommoditiesInterest RatesBusiness LeadersFinance Pro.CalendarSectors 
All NewsEconomyCurrencies & ForexEconomic EventsCryptocurrenciesCybersecurityPress Releases

Another weak U.S. jobs report may be ahead, JPM data suggests

09/20/2021 | 04:46pm EDT
FILE PHOTO: A help wanted sign is posted at a taco stand in Solana Beach, California, U.S., July 17, 2017

(Reuters) - A JPMorgan model that came closer than virtually all other forecasts in predicting last month's big U.S. employment report shortfall is pointing to another weak jobs number for September as consumers appear to have dialed back their travel and leisure spending since Labor Day.

The jobs tracker created by the bank's quantitative research team, fed by a range of alternative data including Chase credit card usage and airport security check volumes, suggests that September job growth will come in at 333,000. That would be far from the kind of rebound from August's disappointing job growth of just 235,000 https://www.reuters.com/world/us/us-job-growth-slows-sharply-august-unemployment-rate-falls-52-2021-09-03 - the lowest total since January - that policymakers at the Federal Reserve and elsewhere are hoping for.

Ahead of the August non-farm payrolls report from the Labor Department released Sept. 3, the JPMorgan research team's model had estimated 353,000 new jobs would be added that month. That was lower than all 80 forecasts in a Reuters poll of economists that sported a median expectation of 728,000, as well as about half the 625,000 payrolls gain forecast by other economists at JPMorgan Chase.

The latest estimate from the quant team's model is down by nearly a quarter million from two weeks ago, and tracks a drop-off in consumer outlays on things like airline travel and restaurants, based on Chase credit card usage data.


Graphic: Air travel ebbs,

That dovetails with recent weakness that has surfaced in other data suggesting the spread of the Delta variant of the coronavirus is damping a range of economic activity that had surged through the spring and early summer on the back of COVID-19 vaccinations and what was then a sub
stantial fall in infections. The United States averaged nearly 150,000 new https://tmsnrt.rs/3AtxnBh infections a day in the last week, according to a Reuters tracker, roughly 10 times the volume from early July.

Payroll tracking firm Homebase, for instance, showed the number of people working at small businesses fell for the eighth consecutive week for the period ending Sept. 12, based on a sample of around 50,000 establishments.

Figures from the Transportation Security Administration, meanwhile, showed that travelers clearing airport checkpoints in the past weekend fell to 72% of the 2019 level on a seven-day average basis, the lowest since mid-June.


Graphic: Small business employment,

The apparent lull comes as Fed officials convene their next monetary policy meeting on Tuesday and are expected to rejoin their ongoing debate over when and how to reduce the emergency support measures they put in place roughly 18 months ago, starting with a likely reduction in their asset purchases https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/november-december-feds-taper-timeline-tied-volatile-jobs-data-2021-09-17 later this year.

At their July meeting, officials said in their post-meeting statement that the economy had "made progress toward" their goals of maximum employment and inflation that averages 2% over time. A key question confronting them over the next two days will be whether they can agree on amending that statement to indicate they believe more progress has been made in the face of the latest surge in cases and data disappointments.

(Reporting by Dan Burns; Additional reporting by Howard Schneider; Editing by Andrea Ricci)

By Dan Burns


© Reuters 2021
Stocks mentioned in the article
ChangeLast1st jan.
BELIEVE 0.69% 17.55 Real-time Quote.0.00%
EURO / US DOLLAR (EUR/USD) 0.00% 1.16525 Delayed Quote.-4.78%
Latest news "Economy & Forex"
01:21aAnalysis-Exit of ECB's Weidmann, decade of economic change shows hawk as endangered species
RE
01:21aABB lowers sales guidance as supply bottlenecks bite
RE
01:18aEU leaders to lock horns over response to energy price spike
RE
01:17aAnalysis-U.S. company results in industrial, materials sectors could shed light on inflation woes
RE
01:16aChina coal futures skid on signs of govt intervention
RE
12:49aFrench parliament approves extension of COVID health pass measures
RE
12:42aCHINA WANTS TO COOL COAL PRICES. SIMILAR MOVES FOR METALS, CRUDE FAILED : Russell
RE
12:36aOil mixed, but solid U.S. demand underpins sentiment
RE
12:32aChina's silence on yuan's swift gains keeps markets buzzing
RE
12:32aEMEA MORNING BRIEFING : Stocks to Struggle as Evergrande Worries Resurface
DJ
Latest news "Economy & Forex"