* Prices for potash, a crucial crop nutrient, are at 13-year
high
* U.S. sanctions on Belarus exporter may inflate prices
further
* Reduced input of potash could worsen global food inflation
* Canada can increase potash supply to partly offset the
damage
MOSCOW, Dec 21 (Reuters) - Global potash prices are set for
an extended rally after the United States imposed sanctions on
major supplier Belarus Potash Company (BPC), piling more
pressure on farmers and consumers already facing rocketing costs
and a global economy navigating rising food inflation.
Prices of the fertiliser, which plays a vital role in crop
health, were already at 13-year highs before the U.S. move on
Dec. 2 and are expected to rise further, potentially curbing
growth of soybean sowing area in Brazil, the world's biggest
supplier, analysts said.
A pause in the increase of the planted area in Brazil would
follow several years of growth and support soybean prices
further.
Sanctions on BPC would make the world more dependent on
other suppliers such as Canada's Nutrien Ltd, the
world's largest potash producer.
The company has idled potash capacity that it could bring
back to the market if needed, a spokesperson for Nutrien told
Reuters.
Nutrien's shares have risen 6.6% since the BPC sanctions
were announced, and hit a record high last week.
BPC did not reply to a request from Reuters for comment.
Another major supplier, Russia's Uralkali, declined to
comment.
BPC is the export arm of Belaruskali, the world's second
largest potash producer. The U.S. black-listed Belaruskali and
added BPC to its sanctions list as the West escalated punitive
action against Belarus President Alexander Lukashenko. Potash
exports are a key foreign currency earner for Minsk.
Washington gave BPC's clients - which include India, China
and Brazil - until April 1 to wind down their business with it.
U.S. sanctions will prevent BPC from accessing dollar-based
financial services, making it difficult to trade on
international markets.
After the sanctions were imposed, BPC said it would work
within existing legal frameworks, but did not elaborate.
Prices for other fertilisers such as urea and phosphate have
also surged this year as record natural gas and coal prices
triggered output cuts in the sector.
Reduced fertiliser input could lead to lower harvest yields
at a time when food commodity prices are at 10-year peaks and
food inflation is a major issue across the globe.
IMPACT ON GLOBAL POTASH PRICES
Global spot prices for potash are at 13-year highs around
$650 per tonne after a spike in crop prices and a demand
recovery this year.
The record price for potash was set in 2008 when deals were
signed at around $800 per tonne, said VTB Capital analyst Elena
Sakhnova.
In Brazil, spot potash prices could rise to $900-950 per
tonne in the first quarter of 2022 from $800 per tonne now,
Marcelo Mello, director of the StoneX fertiliser desk in Brazil,
told Reuters. They have jumped more than 230% since January.
Potash is needed for growing many crops including soybeans,
rice, corn, fruits, vegetables, palm oil and wheat.
It improves crop resistance to diseases, droughts and
promotes higher crop yields. It cannot be replaced with
phosphate or nitrogen-based fertilisers.
India's potash consumption and imports may fall if potash
prices rise further due to the sanctions on BPC, an industry
official in India said.
BPC typically agrees annual supply contracts with India with
the most recent deal signed in January.
"We are trying to resolve the issue or at least find some
temporary solution," another senior industry official in India
told Reuters.
China sources 20% of its potash imports from Belarus. Prices
in the world's largest consumer are also high, despite the
recent release of some of China's potash reserve.
"Potash supply ultimately remains tight with imports still
limited and port inventories falling," Humphrey Knight, senior
potash analyst at CRU consultancy, said about China.
The ability of BPC to supply customers could also be
hampered by logistics with landlocked Belarus relying heavily on
Lithuania's Klaipeda port to export potash, he added.
Russia, which remains Belarus' ally https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/putin-says-nato-drills-black-sea-are-serious-challenge-moscow-2021-11-13,
does not have enough spare port capacity to handle BPC's 12.5
million tonnes a year.
Lithuania continues to transport Belarus potash by rail to
its Baltic port for now under previously signed contract and
pre-payment for December and part of January.
However, public pressure on state firms to comply with the
U.S. sanctions is rising in Vilnius, one of Europe's most vocal
critics of human rights abuses in Belarus. The United States is
a strategic partner of Lithuania.
(Reporting by Polina Devitt in Moscow, Rajendra Jadhav in
Mumbai, Rod Nickel in Winnipeg, Emily Chow in Beijing, Roberto
Samora in Sao Paulo and Andrius Sytas in Vilnus; writing by
Polina Devitt; editing by David Evans)