(The author is editor-at-large for finance and markets at
Reuters News. Any views expressed here are his own)
LONDON, Nov 27 (Reuters) - Janet Yellen's likely appointment
as U.S. Treasury Secretary is unlikely to usher in a new
exchange-rate doctrine but may see more sensitivity toward the
dollar's global impact.
Assuming President-elect Joe Biden appoints the former
Federal Reserve chair to be Treasury chief, as widely reported,
her vast policymaking experience means few shocks are in store
for markets that are already assuming she will be as much of a
fiscal policy "dove" as she was a monetary one at the Fed.
But despite expected post-election congressional gridlock,
investors remain wary that a combination of unprecedented fiscal
and monetary stimulus, alongside a broadening recovery of the
world economy and more risk-taking could weaken the dollar
dramatically as twin U.S. budget and trade deficits yawn.
Yellen's appointment, they assume, only reinforces that
picture as she's a clear advocate of more government investment
spending, keeps close attention to fragmented labour markets and
inequalities and presided over easy-money policy at the Fed.
While Fed policy is often the dominant determinant of the
dollar's exchange rate, the Treasury officially holds the reins
of currency policy and would, for example, be required to
sanction any explicit dollar orientation one way or another or
indeed any outright open market intervention to achieve the aim.
So Yellen's dollar stance potentially packs a punch -
alongside her past experience of, and future relationship with,
the Fed over the broad sweep of economic policy.
That's clearly something former Treasury Secretary Larry
Summers was aware of this month in urging the new Treasury chief
to avoid an "actively devaluationist or indifferent" take on the
dollar, but rather deploy some oft-repeated public wording akin
to the "strong dollar" mantra he and others adopted in the
1990s.
And the change is stark as it follows four years in which
President Donald Trump - if not always his Treasury Secretary
Steven Mnuchin - continually talked the dollar down in support
of his protectionist trade policies.
Indeed, Deutsche Bank this week said it expects Yellen to
largely follow the Summers recommendation - emphasising the role
of a stable dollar in domestic and global financial stability.
"Dollar policy can be expected to return to an even keel
under Yellen," economists Peter Hooper and Matthew Luzzetti
wrote. "The Treasury will not direct the Fed to intervene to
push the dollar one way or another, but it will coordinate with
the Fed to intervene to smooth markets as needed in the unusual
event that they become 'disorderly'."
IN HER OWN WORDS
But what of Yellen's past influence and her own view?
Curiously, after years of publicly seeking a weaker dollar,
the Trump administration didn't have much success. The Fed's
broad trade-weighted dollar index is pretty much where it was
when Trump was elected in 2016 - even if it has at least unwound
a brief stress-related spike of 9% as the pandemic unfolded.
By contrast, the dollar index appreciated 15% during the
four years Yellen led the Fed - a period during which she
presided over the first interest rate rise in nine years just as
the European Central Bank went in the opposite direction with
the unprecedented step of pushing its policy rates below zero.
For one, it shows that someone considered to be an
"uber-dove" can execute tougher decisions when necessary.
But it's Yellen's own description of that period that may be
more revealing about her currency tack.
In a podcast recorded last year in her role at Washington's
Brookings Institution, Yellen explained how G20 meetings she had
attended frequently criticised the Fed for not considering
exchange-rate "spillovers" to the rest of the world - developing
countries in particular - when it set domestic monetary policy.
But she said this criticism arrived whether the Fed was
easing or tightening policy. In other words, complaints were
really about the extremity of moves and not the direction per se
- and she added the Fed was "sensitive to these concerns".
Perhaps more relevant to her likely new role at Treasury,
where she would ultimately decide if trade partners manipulate
their currency for export advantage, Yellen was quite explicit
about policy spillovers to China and cautioned strongly about
equating domestic monetary priorities with manipulation per se.
She recounted how after years of concern that Beijing was
capping the yuan for trade gains, the prospect of Fed tightening
in 2015 led to massive capital outflows from China and a sharp
yuan slide that unnerved global markets and, crucially, delayed
the timing of Fed hikes.
"It seemed the Fed paused and that seems like a good example
of this kind of realistic feedback," she said, according to the
transcript of the podcast.
Asked whether the Fed was basically making monetary policy
for the whole world, Yellen cited former Fed chair Alan
Greenspan's speech during the emerging-markets meltdown of 1998
as the Fed eased policy into a still-booming domestic economy.
Greenspan explained it by saying the United States could not
remain an "oasis of prosperity" in world economy in turmoil.
"I think that remains as true today as it was then," Yellen
said.
If those views hold true - and a pandemic might even have
sharpened them - it seems unlikely a Yellen Treasury will stay
silent if the dollar were to decline precipitously - let alone
cheerlead its slide.
(by Mike Dolan, Twitter: @reutersMikeD; Editing by Pravin Char)