March 4 (Reuters) - Stronger economic data should push the
benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yield up to 1.9% by the end of
2021, according to Goldman Sachs' latest forecast released on
Thursday.
Expectations that government stimulus and a countrywide
coronavirus vaccination program are fueling an economic rebound
in the United States have pushed Treasury yields higher in
recent weeks, a move that has reverberated throughout global
markets and weighed on U.S. stocks.
The 10-year yield, which began 2021 at 0.930%,
hit a high of 1.614% on Feb. 25 and was trading around 1.55% on
Thursday.
"While we think there will be some near-term consolidation,
we believe strong economic data will lead yields to resume their
upward trajectory in the coming quarters, and we therefore
revise up our projections," a Goldman Sachs Economics Research
report said.
The 10-year yield last reached 1.9% in January 2020, which
was before the full force of the coronavirus pandemic hit the
U.S. economy and the Federal Reserve took action to cut interest
rates to rock bottom levels. Recent data has shown some signs of
economic improvement as the roll out of COVID-19 vaccines is
underway.
Rising Treasury yields tend to dim the allure of stocks and
other comparatively risky investments. Wall Street ended sharply
lower on Thursday, leaving the Nasdaq down around 10% from its
February record high, after remarks from Federal Reserve Chair
Jerome Powell disappointed investors worried about rising
longer-term U.S. bond yields.
Goldman Sachs also forecast the 10-year German bund yield
, which has been in negative territory since May
2019, to rise to 0% by year end. It was last at -0.311%.
The 10-year gilt yield, which was last at
0.733%, was projected to climb to 1.10%, while the 10-year
Japanese bond yield, currently at 0.136%, was seen
reaching 0.3%.
Goldman Sachs also projected that the breakeven inflation
rate on 10-year Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities
could be boosted to 2.4% to 2.45% from the current
level of about 2.2% due to "the combination of an on-hold Fed,
strong realized inflation, and a substantial reduction in
slack."
(By Karen Pierog in Chicago
Editing by Matthew Lewis)